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"Going
Postal on the Martin Coastal" in Breakout: Normandy
At the World Boardgaming
Championships in 2000, Phil Barcafer adopted a new strategy in Ste.
Mère-Église (Area 50) that attracted a lot of interest
and commentary. The strategy was previously unseen, yet it worked
quite well for Phil. Indeed, he won the Breakout: Normandy
championship that year!
The orthodox D-Day strategy
for the Allies is to deploy two of the four paratroop regiments
available in Area 50 to seize the bridges to Carentan (Area 44)
and Montebourg (Area 52), leaving the remaining two paratroop regiments
fresh. In addition, one of the two available paratroop regiments
landing in Pont l'Abbé (Area 49) is deployed to seize the
49/50 bridge. With the Ste. Mère-Église bridges in
Allied hands, the Germans are unable to reinforce the Area unless
they make a mandatory assault at terrible odds. Moreover, with two
paratroop regiments remaining fresh in Ste. Mère-Église
the Germans have only a one-in-six chance of seizing back one of
the bridges. If the Allies can hold the bridges until June 7, the
325th paratroop regiment of the 82nd division arrives to eliminate
any possibility the Germans might seize the bridge back. This gives
the Allies all the time they need to land and organize their forces
on Utah Beach, storm the 51/50 bridge and free Ste. Mère-Église.
The "Going Postal"
strategy is quite unorthodox. Here's how Phil Barcafer described
it. "During the paradrop phase, I had the 4 US Airborne units
attack the Ste. Mère-Église coastal unit at 7 to 5,
needing 3+ on the dice to clear it. I did not get it. I gave up
the advantage, rerolled, and won by 5. Ste. Mère was clear
before anyone hit the beaches. There was a great risk involved here,
but not as much as it seems. If I had lost the second roll, I would
have had no bridges. Any opponent could have driven the 6-6-3 from
Carentan into Ste. Mère on their first impulse. That would
have been bad, but then I would have driven the Brits into Tilly
and Villars [through a vacant Bretteville]. So the next German move
would by necessity be the Bretteville move, allowing me to bring
the 4th division in to attack Ste. Mère, with another chance
to clear the Area." (Consimworld Breakout: Normandy
folder, #861, August 7, 2000.)
The strategy is indeed
risky. The chance of getting a 3+ DR-DIFF is just 24% and the chance
of getting it in two attempts (using the advantage to get a re-roll)
is 42%. So the approach will work less than half the time. If successful
though, the Allies can make an early assault on Carentan and possibly
break the game wide open. Of course, if the Allies have to give
up the advantage to make the strategy work, the Germans might subsequently
use it to declare a double impulse, in order to reinforce Ste. Mère-Église
and occupy Bretteville both on the first impulse.
Jim Doughan suggested
an "alternative-to-postal" gambit for hitting Ste. Mère-Église
hard and early that does not require giving up the advantage (Consimworld
Breakout: Normandy folder, #873, August 9, 2000).
In the Airborne Phase, the Allies seize the 44/50 bridge as usual,
but they seize the 50/51 bridge to Utah Beach instead of the 50/52
bridge to Montebourg. During the Air Bombardment Phase they hit
Montebourg, targeting the 709/919(-) infantry battalion with a 56%
chance of flipping it. During the Amphibious Assault Phase, only
one of the 4th division regiments hits the beach, hoping to clear
the Area alone (a 66% probability, provided the defending German
709/1/919 infantry battalion was spent during the Naval Bombardment
Phase). During the June 6 Daylight impulses, the Allies can hit
Ste. Mère-Église twice at 7-5, using the remaining
two 4th division regiments. Unless there is a weather change, the
Germans are unable to reinforce the Area because none of their units
have sufficient movement factor.
Is "Going Postal"
a good strategy? The balance of opinion seems to be "no",
since it has not been widely adopted in the past couple of years
since Phil Barcafer introduced the gambit. On average the strategy
will fail 58% of the time, will succeed without the need to relinquish
the advantage 24% of the time, and will succeed at the cost of giving
up the advantage 18% of the time. If it works, the Allies certainly
get the upper hand at the start of the game. If it fails, the Allies
may end up with a stalemate on the Utah Beach front, much as they
would if the Germans recapture the "magic" 52/50 bridge
on a 1-in-6 die roll, playing the orthodox strategy. The gambit
also implies a significant 76% risk the Allies will lose the advantage,
though they have a possibility of regaining it via the Omaha "Trifecta".
In sum, while the strategy has not become the new orthodoxy, it
survives as a reasonable alternative line of attack.
A much more conservative
version of the postal tactic, dubbed "third class mail"
by Jim Eliason, involves delaying the paratroop assault until late
in the day on June 6. If the St. Mère-Église garrison
is already weakened by an assault from the 4th infantry, attack
with the remaining two fresh paratroopers late on D-Day. Michael
Rinella suggests waiting until impulse 9. This move risks little
since the Allies will probably have nothing else very useful to
do with their impulses late on the opening day of the campaign and
even if the attack fails, the day is likely to end.
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