|
Table
P.4
Sunset and Weather Probabilities |
|||||
|
Impulse
#
|
Sunset
DRM
|
Probability
that Sunset DR < impulse # and the sun sets
|
Probability
that Sunset DR = impulse # and weather changes
|
Probability
that Sunset DR > impulse # and day+weather continue
|
Cumulative
probability that sun will set by next impulse
|
|
0
|
0
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
1
|
0
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
2.78%
|
97.22%
|
0.00%
|
|
3
|
0
|
2.78%
|
5.56%
|
91.67%
|
2.78%
|
|
4
|
0
|
8.33%
|
8.33%
|
83.33%
|
10.88%
|
|
5
|
0
|
16.67%
|
11.11%
|
72.22%
|
25.73%
|
|
6
|
0
|
27.78%
|
13.89%
|
58.33%
|
46.36%
|
|
7
|
0
|
41.67%
|
16.67%
|
41.67%
|
68.71%
|
|
8
|
0
|
58.33%
|
13.89%
|
27.78%
|
86.96%
|
|
9
|
0
|
72.22%
|
11.11%
|
16.67%
|
96.38%
|
|
10
|
0
|
83.33%
|
8.33%
|
8.33%
|
99.40%
|
|
11
|
0
|
91.67%
|
5.56%
|
2.78%
|
99.95%
|
|
12
|
0
|
97.22%
|
2.78%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
13
|
0
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
--
|
|
0
|
1
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
1
|
1
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
2
|
1
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
3
|
1
|
0.00%
|
2.78%
|
97.22%
|
0.00%
|
|
4
|
1
|
2.78%
|
5.56%
|
91.67%
|
2.78%
|
|
5
|
1
|
8.33%
|
8.33%
|
83.33%
|
10.88%
|
|
6
|
1
|
16.67%
|
11.11%
|
72.22%
|
25.73%
|
|
7
|
1
|
27.78%
|
13.89%
|
58.33%
|
46.36%
|
|
8
|
1
|
41.67%
|
16.67%
|
41.67%
|
68.71%
|
|
9
|
1
|
58.33%
|
13.89%
|
27.78%
|
86.96%
|
|
10
|
1
|
72.22%
|
11.11%
|
16.67%
|
96.38%
|
|
11
|
1
|
83.33%
|
8.33%
|
8.33%
|
99.40%
|
|
12
|
1
|
91.67%
|
5.56%
|
2.78%
|
99.95%
|
|
13
|
1
|
97.22%
|
2.78%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
14
|
1
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
--
|
|
0
|
-1
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
1
|
-1
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
97.22%
|
0.00%
|
|
2
|
-1
|
2.78%
|
0.00%
|
91.67%
|
2.78%
|
|
3
|
-1
|
8.33%
|
0.00%
|
83.33%
|
10.88%
|
|
4
|
-1
|
16.67%
|
0.00%
|
72.22%
|
25.73%
|
|
5
|
-1
|
27.78%
|
0.00%
|
58.33%
|
46.36%
|
|
6
|
-1
|
41.67%
|
0.00%
|
41.67%
|
68.71%
|
|
7
|
-1
|
58.33%
|
0.00%
|
27.78%
|
86.96%
|
|
8
|
-1
|
72.22%
|
0.00%
|
16.67%
|
96.38%
|
|
9
|
-1
|
83.33%
|
0.00%
|
8.33%
|
99.40%
|
|
10
|
-1
|
91.67%
|
0.00%
|
2.78%
|
99.95%
|
|
11
|
-1
|
97.22%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
12
|
-1
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
--
|
|
It should be noted that
at the start of the day there is a 56% probability that the weather
will not change before the day ends and a 44% probability that it
will change at some point. The probability that the weather will not
change before impulse 6 is 77% (assuming a zero Sunset DRM) and of
course the probability that it will change before impulse 6 is 23%.
The probability that the weather will not change before impulse 8
is 63% (assuming a zero Sunset DRM) and of course the probability
that it will change before impulse 8 is 37%.
|
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